Trading advice from Doncaster racecourse

While the majority of the attention is focused on Aidan O’Brien prior to the St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday it could be John Gosden who saddles the first two home with Lucarno and Raincoat.

Much of the speculation about Lucarno is  whether he will stay the trip.  It is obviously a point traders need to bear in mind but based purely on what he has achieved on the racecourse then it is highly likely he will not be inconvenienced at this trip.

A most consistent type, his only below par run this season came at Newmarket when he may just have been feeling the effects of a hard season. Given a month off, he returned triumphantly at York when equalling, in terms of form his efforts when fourth in the Derby and when winning a listed contest at Newmarket in May. If able to repeat any of those efforts he may be hard to beat and this strong travelling sort is unlikely to go down without a fight in the closing stages despite what his stamina critics may say.

 It could be his stablemate Raincoat who gives him most to do based on his run at York in the Dante behind Authorized. Although below par both in the French Derby and in a slowly run race at Goodwood on his next two outings, the colt would only have to return to his Dante form to hold every chance for connections.

 Honolulu’s chances cannot be dismissed and there was plenty to like about his effort in the Ebor Handicap last month and his trainer has an excellent record in the recent past in this race. However, traders must decide whether they want to take a short price against a handicapper in a Classic especially after possibly being in such a hard race for one so young in the York marathon. If repeating that form he will certainly go close and the wide open spaces of Doncaster will suit but there remains enough doubts to think about a lay if his price gets too short.

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Although unable to land a blow in his last three races, Dansart could still be good enough to win for the three-year-olds in the 14.6 furlong Mallard Stakes at Doncaster.

Gerald Butler’s charge still has a remarkably consistent profile despite his latest efforts and receiving weight-for-age at this time of the year could rate a value bet around the 5/1 mark.

The pick of his form came at Haydock in early June when plugging on behind Eradicate and Philatelist. Although those front two have been disappointing since both Cabinet and Sandbuch scored next out. Below par when pulling too hard at Royal Ascot, Dansart came back to something approaching his best when finishing a distant runner-up behind Templestern at Sandown on his penultimate start.

Not disgraced next time out at York in the competitive Melrose Stakes, the son of Dansili showed his resilience for this sort of test of stamina. The colt held every chance inside the final furlong before being swamped close home. A repeat of that performance on ground fast enough to inconvenience some of his rivals should ensure he is close up at the finish and holds every chance of a place at the very least.

It is hard to ignore any Sir Michael Stoute horses at present and it would be foolhardy for any trader to leave his Ogee out of the equation given his level of overall form.

His best effort came at Royal Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes where he finished a good fourth in a competitive race run in a solid time for the conditions. Two decent efforts followed when stepped up in class before getting lost in the Ebor in first-time blinkers. Ogee showed his well being last time out at Chester when despite giving his inexperienced rider a hard time still ran a creditable race behind Bauer.

If continuing his improvement at this trip he is another who will be hard to keep out of the frame and looks set to be suited by the wide-open spaces of this track. On the downside, his best form has come with a bit of curt in the ground and any rain will strengthen his chance.

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As long as the price remains backable then Kirklees should have many traders licking their lips in the crownhotel-bawtry.com Conditions Stakes at Doncaster.

The three -year-old lines up in a select field for the 10.3 furlong race and should only have to show the form he showed last season when with Mark Johnston to see of his rivals given natural improvement over the winter (and summer). Now in the care of Godolphin, the colt advertised his potential when scoring at Catterick on his second appearance as a juvenile by five lengths despite being colty before the race and noticeably edgy in the stalls.

That was to be his last win in England but lost little in defeat at Goodwood, York and Ascot on three subsequent runs with the pick being his runs coming at York where he finished fourth behind subsequent 2000 Guineas 1-2 Cockney Rebel and Vital Equine with that pair split that day on the Knavemire by Derby runner-up Eagle Mountain. The high quality form of that race was backed up with an excellent time figure making it one of the most important two-year-old races of last season.

Kirklees finished the season winning a soft Group One in Italy but showed a willing spirit in doing so. If fit on his return he looks set to be hard to beat and having won on a variety of grounds no change in the weather looks set to spoil his chance in a race where the conditions are very much in his favour.

Should fitness let him down or for those looking at forecast then it may pay to side with Richard Hannon’s Duke Of Tuscany - another favoured by the way the race is framed.  The three-year-old, aside from a below par run at Goodwood, has been in fine fettle all season and showed on his latest start at Kempton that he remains in good order.

The form that could win him this race was put up at Newbury in May when he only narrowly failed to land a competitive handicap when beaten by subsequent dual winner Zaham. A repeat of that run would entitle him to go close and gain a most deserved first win of the year. His last success came on this day last season at Sandown.

Henry Cecil has enjoyed better fortune this season and his Many Volumes would not be without a chance given he has the pick of recent form on his side. The three-year-old’s performance at Newmarket in the Kleinwort Benson Stakes in July came in a race that has thrown up plenty of wins and good runs from many who took part. Should Many Volumes be able to put in a similar performance then there is no reason to see why he can’t be in the firing line at the very least as the leaders bear down on the finishing line.